\u00a0 <\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz ve alt\u0131ndaki h\u0131zl\u0131 t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f ve faizlerdeki art\u0131\u015f neyi g\u00f6steriyor?<\/strong> <\/p>\n T\u00fcrkiye De\u011fi\u015fiyor mu, Yok mu Oluyor?<\/strong> <\/p>\n \u0130ki farkl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f var; 1- T\u00fcrkiye b\u00fcy\u00fcyor, de\u011fi\u015fiyor… 2- T\u00fcrkiye siyasi ve ekonomik olarak yok oluyor… Ve Bat\u0131yor!.. <\/p>\n De\u011ferli dostlar, son d\u00f6nemde i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fum guruplar i\u00e7inde dinledi\u011fim iki farkl\u0131 senaryonun \u00f6zetini giri\u015f c\u00fcmlesi i\u00e7inde sizlere aktard\u0131m… Nas\u0131l oluyor da ayn\u0131 \u00fclkede ya\u015fayan insanlar "\u00fczerinde yol ald\u0131klar\u0131 geminin y\u00f6n\u00fc hakk\u0131nda" bu kadar kesin de\u011fi\u015fkenlik g\u00f6steren tespitlerde bulunuyorlar? <\/p>\n \u00a0 <\/p>\n Cevap \u00e7ok zor de\u011fil; \u00fclke genelindeki birikimin da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 bozuksa ve ekonomik model s\u0131cak para \u00fczerine odaklanm\u0131\u015fsa, paran\u0131n para kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemde insanlar\u0131n ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131klar\u0131 pozisyonlara g\u00f6re \u00e7ok kesin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flere sahip olmalar\u0131 do\u011fald\u0131r. <\/p>\n Daha a\u00e7\u0131k ifadesiyle; sistemdeki b\u00fct\u00fcn birikimin y\u00fczde 80'i toplam n\u00fcfusun y\u00fczde 20'sine, y\u00fczde 20'si ise toplam n\u00fcfusun y\u00fczde 80'ine ait ise; s\u0131cak para merkezli genle\u015fen bir ekonomide "\u00e7ark d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalanlar ile \u00e7ark\u0131n di\u015fleri olanlar" aras\u0131nda kesin alg\u0131lama farklar\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131kar. <\/p>\n Durum 1:<\/strong> Son 5 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde havadan para kazananlar ve sistemin finansal genle\u015fmesinden memnun olanlar i\u00e7in T\u00fcrkiye \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyor, geli\u015fiyor, de\u011fi\u015fiyor… <\/p>\n Durum 2:<\/strong> Son 5 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde birikimi olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in finansal genle\u015fmeden yararlanamayanlar i\u00e7in; sistem, makro ekonomik anlamda yeni a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131mlar sa\u011flamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 hatta reel sekt\u00f6r d\u00fc\u015fen kur gibi olumsuzluklar ile daha zor g\u00fcnler ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, \u00e7\u00f6kme noktas\u0131na gidiyor… <\/p>\n Peki durumu ekonomik veya daha do\u011fru ifadesiyle finansal \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcden \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131r ve incelersek; T\u00fcrkiye nereye gidiyor? D\u00fc\u015fen enflasyon, de\u011fi\u015fen T\u00fcrkiye ve en \u00f6nemlisi farkl\u0131la\u015fan T\u00fcrkiye alg\u0131lamas\u0131 "iyimser olmak" i\u00e7in yeterli de\u011fil mi?<\/strong> <\/p>\n Yeterli ise, sivil toplum kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndakiler ve en \u00f6nemlisi yukar\u0131da \u00f6rneklemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m "s\u0131cak para d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc" d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalan halk neden feryat ediyor? <\/p>\n Ekonomik gidi\u015fattan herkes memnun mu? O zaman \u015fu s\u00f6zlere kulak verin. \u0130\u015fte size R\u0131fat Hisarc\u0131kl\u0131o\u011flu'nun son d\u00f6nemde yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamadan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131mlar, l\u00fctfen bir g\u00f6z at\u0131n. Ne mi diyor Hisarc\u0131kl\u0131o\u011flu? S\u00f6yledi\u011fi \u00e7ok a\u00e7\u0131k; \u00fcreten kesim yok oluyor, T\u00fcrkiye tamamen ithal \u00fcr\u00fcnleri t\u00fcketen, \u00fcretenin cezaland\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir \u00fclke haline geliyor. Cari a\u00e7\u0131k 2006'da kald\u0131r\u0131lamayacak \u015fekilde patlayacak. Daha a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7as\u0131; ekonominin sa\u011flam olmas\u0131 gereken bacaklar\u0131 tek tek k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor… <\/p>\n Yeterli de\u011fil ise, ba\u015fka bir sese, T\u0130M Ba\u015fkan\u0131 O\u011fuz Sat\u0131c\u0131'ya kulak verelim: "T\u00fcrkiye, 1875 Osmanl\u0131'n\u0131n son g\u00fcnlerine geri d\u00f6n\u00fcyor. Kontrols\u00fcz ithal mallar, G\u00fcmr\u00fck Birli\u011fi'nin de etkisiyle yerli \u00fcreticinin belini k\u0131rarken, d\u00fc\u015fen kur \u00fcreteni cezaland\u0131r\u0131yor."\u00a0 <\/p>\n De\u011ferli dostlar, "s\u0131cak para modeli" ile bug\u00fcne gelen, yak\u0131t\u0131 "\u00fcreten" olan yap\u0131 ile ilgili tespitlerimi ve en \u00f6nemlisi \u00e7ark d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kalanlar\u0131n feryatlar\u0131n\u0131 sizlere aktard\u0131m. Bu noktada akl\u0131ma tak\u0131lan baz\u0131 detaylar\u0131, konuyu sorgulamak isteyenlere yard\u0131mc\u0131 olmas\u0131 i\u00e7in sizlerle payla\u015fmak istiyorum. <\/p>\n – Cari a\u00e7\u0131k ve d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131nda rekorlar k\u0131ran, yani paras\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferli k\u0131larak ithal mallar\u0131n\u0131 kendi \u00fclkesinde ucuz hale getiren, d\u00f6viz kurunun s\u0131cak para giri\u015fi ile devaml\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fen bir trend i\u00e7inde kalmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayan her \u00fclke; k\u0131sa vadeli tan\u0131mlanm\u0131\u015f bir g\u00f6zlem aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcr. <\/p>\n – Evet, son 3 y\u0131lda "a\u00e7\u0131klanan veriler" bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme rekorudur ama d\u00fcnyan\u0131n ilk ve tek cari a\u00e7\u0131k ve d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile sa\u011flanm\u0131\u015f (ayn\u0131 anda bu dinamiklerin de rekor k\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131) bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme rekorudur. Bu asl\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme de\u011fil, cari a\u00e7\u0131k ve d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi iki \u00f6nemli de\u011fi\u015fkeni dibine kadar zorlayan ve ekonomiyi orta ve uzun vadede sakat b\u0131rakacak bir ill\u00fczyondur. <\/p>\n – Bu b\u00fcy\u00fcme T\u00fcrk \u00fcreticisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi de\u011fil, T\u00fcrkiye'ye mal satan yabanc\u0131 \u00fcreticilerin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesidir. T\u00fcrkiye'ye 2003 y\u0131l\u0131nda 100 birim mal satan bir yabanc\u0131 \u00fcretici 2004 ve 2005 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 15-20 aras\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcyerek 115-120 birim mal satar hale gelmi\u015ftir. Bu denklem de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi o firman\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye'deki rakibinin de kapanmas\u0131na, iflas etmesine yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. B\u00f6yle b\u00fcy\u00fcme olur mu? D\u00fcnya \u00fczerinde kendi \u00fcreticisini yok ederek b\u00fcy\u00fcyen bir \u00fclke \u00f6rne\u011fi daha var m\u0131? <\/p>\n – B\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi sa\u011flayan "kuru basarak" ayn\u0131 anda s\u0131cak paran\u0131n rant\u0131n\u0131 maksimize eden dinami\u011fe, serbest dola\u015famad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in mal satamayan yerli end\u00fcstrinin g\u00fcnden g\u00fcne ithalat\u00e7\u0131 olmas\u0131 ger\u00e7e\u011fini ekleyin, ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan sonu\u00e7 \u00e7ok net; ithalata dayanan k\u0131sa vadede l\u00fcks t\u00fcketim ile yerli \u00fcreticinin yok olmas\u0131 pahas\u0131na b\u00fcy\u00fcr g\u00f6r\u00fcnen bir ekonomi. <\/p>\n Sonu\u00e7 1:<\/strong> Balland\u0131r\u0131larak anlat\u0131lan b\u00fcy\u00fcme; \u00fclkedeki sa\u011flam dinamiklerin zorlanarak, "s\u0131cak para, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kur, artan d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, cari a\u00e7\u0131k gibi" etkenler ile sanal bir tablo olu\u015fumudur. <\/p>\n Sonu\u00e7 2:<\/strong> Balland\u0131rarak anlat\u0131lan "stabilite" artan s\u0131cak paran\u0131n sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ge\u00e7ici bir durumdur. <\/p>\n Sonu\u00e7 3:<\/strong> Siz hi\u00e7 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen bir ekonomide; insanlar\u0131n borcundan dolay\u0131 intihar etti\u011fini, \u00fcretimden para kazanan tesislerin patronlar\u0131n\u0131n a\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, i\u015f\u00e7i \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, h\u0131rs\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, kapka\u00e7\u0131n \u015fehirleri esir ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, i\u015fsizli\u011fin rekor k\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, rekabet edemeyen \u00fcreticinin ayn\u0131 mal\u0131n ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6rd\u00fcn\u00fcz m\u00fc? <\/p>\n Sonu\u00e7 4:<\/strong> Yukar\u0131daki tespitler "k\u0131sa vadede" finansal stabilite bozulacak, 1994-2001 tipi dalgalanmalar ya\u015fayaca\u011f\u0131z anlam\u0131na gelmez. Sistem "entropik" bir yap\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in da\u011f\u0131l\u0131p kaosa ge\u00e7meye e\u011filimli olsa bile, i\u00e7eridekiler veya yeni kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar "sistemi beslemeye" devam ettik\u00e7e yani "para ekleyerek kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamaya" devam ettik\u00e7e da\u011f\u0131lmadan devam eder. Nereye kadar? "Marjinal kuru\u015f, marjinal k\u00e2r" sa\u011flamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 noktaya kadar. Bu nokta gelince, i\u00e7erideki k\u00e2r\u0131n transferi ba\u015flar ve kule \u00e7\u00f6ker. <\/p>\n Sonu\u00e7 5: Bir sistemin \u00f6z\u00fc "s\u0131cak para, b\u00f6l\u00fcc\u00fcl\u00fck, irtica" gibi etkenler taraf\u0131ndan zorlan\u0131yor, bu zorlamaya birileri para kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in sesini \u00e7\u0131karm\u0131yor, birileri de (herkesi kendi kadar \u00fclkeye ba\u011fl\u0131 varsayarak) hi\u00e7 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmeden evlatlar\u0131n\u0131 \u015fehit veriyorsa; ekonomik ve en \u00f6nemlisi siyasi olarak bu sistem do\u011fru i\u015fliyor olamaz…[1]<\/strong><\/a><\/strong> <\/p>\n ABD'nin A\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131 ve Senaryolar<\/strong> <\/p>\n Sebastian Edwards'\u0131n yank\u0131 bulan makalesi \u015f\u00f6yleydi: ABD'nin ikiz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ileride d\u00fcnya piyasalar\u0131nda bir t\u00fcrb\u00fclansa sebep olabilir mi? <\/p>\n Bu konuda "sebep olur"<\/strong> ve "sebep olmaz"<\/strong> \u015feklinde iki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f hakimdi ve "sebep olmaz"<\/strong> diyenlerin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc ge\u00e7enlerde aktarm\u0131\u015ft\u0131k. Edwards bu makalesinde 1970'lerden itibaren ABD'nin reel kur endeksini ve cari a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 masaya yat\u0131rarak, daha \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fclen y\u00fcksek oranl\u0131 cari a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n nas\u0131l kapand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve reel kur endeksinin yava\u015f m\u0131, yoksa h\u0131zl\u0131 m\u0131 hareket etti\u011fini ara\u015ft\u0131rm\u0131\u015f ve \u015fu an ula\u015f\u0131lan durumun farklar\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koymu\u015f. <\/p>\n Daha \u00f6nceleri ABD cari a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131 gayri safi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131lan\u0131n (GSY\u0130H) en fazla y\u00fczde 4'\u00fcne ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f (bug\u00fcn itibar\u0131yla y\u00fczde 6.5 seviyesinde). 1985 ile 1989 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki bu y\u00fcksek cari a\u00e7\u0131k rakam\u0131 daha sonra, ABD Dolar\u0131'n\u0131n de\u011ferinin istikrarl\u0131 bir bi\u00e7imde d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle birlikte kapanm\u0131\u015f. Birinci s\u0131n\u0131f ekonomi \u00f6\u011frencilerinin de \u00e7ok iyi bilece\u011fi gibi; cari a\u00e7\u0131k=yat\u0131r\u0131m-tasarruf a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. <\/p>\n Daha \u00f6nceki cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n finansman\u0131 y\u00fcksek bir oranda hanehalk\u0131 ve \u015firket tasarruflar\u0131yla finanse edilmi\u015f. Fakat cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n GSY\u0130H'ya oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 6.5 seviyesine ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu ortamda hane halk\u0131 tasarruflar\u0131 gittik\u00e7e erimi\u015f ve daha \u00f6nce y\u00fczde 6-7 olan bu oran y\u00fczde 1'lere kadar gerilemi\u015f. Kamu tasarruf a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 da GSY\u0130H'n\u0131n y\u00fczde 3'\u00fcne gelince, art\u0131k ABD'nin cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u015firket tasarruflar\u0131 ve yabanc\u0131 tasarruflar finanse ediyor. Yani d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan ald\u0131klar\u0131 bor\u00e7lar\u0131 kamu harcamalar\u0131nda kullan\u0131rken, bu bor\u00e7lar ayn\u0131 zamanda Amerikan halk\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcketimini k\u00f6r\u00fckleyerek, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi destekliyor. \u0130\u015fte bu durumun \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir risk oldu\u011fu vurgulan\u0131yor. Sebastian Edwards \u015fu noktalar\u0131 \u00e7ok \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde ortaya koyuyor. <\/p>\n Modern ekonomi tarihinde, ABD b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde hi\u00e7bir ekonomi s\u00fcreklilik arz eden ve bu derece y\u00fcksek bir cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa ula\u015fmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Portf\u00f6y modeli yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131na g\u00f6re yabanc\u0131lar bir\u00e7ok nedenle ABD'nin cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 finanse ediyorlar. <\/p>\n Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n gelece\u011fi yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n ABD varl\u0131klar\u0131na yat\u0131r\u0131m taleplerini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcp s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeyece\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. <\/p>\n ABD'nin k\u0131sa s\u00fcre i\u00e7inde ac\u0131l\u0131 ve maliyetli bir d\u00fczeltme yapmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok y\u00fcksektir. <\/p>\n \u015eu an d\u00fcnyan\u0131n rezerv paras\u0131 olan dolar, bu t\u00fcr bir tehlike ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya ise, herhalde alt\u0131n\u0131n neden s\u00fcrekli y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinde oldu\u011funu \u00e7ok fazla sorgulamaya gerek yok. Bu konudaki di\u011fer \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 da yeri geldik\u00e7e sizlere aktaraca\u011f\u0131m. Art\u0131k global d\u00fcnyada neler olup bitti\u011fini \u00e7ok iyi anlamam\u0131z gerekiyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc ucu de\u011fil, belki tamam\u0131 bize de dokunacak.[2]<\/a> <\/p>\n Bat\u0131<\/strong> ba\u015fkentlerinde<\/strong> epeydir<\/strong> kulaktan<\/strong> kula\u011fa<\/strong> bir<\/strong> "s\u0131r"<\/strong> f\u0131s\u0131ldan\u0131yor:<\/strong> \u0130ran Borsa<\/strong>s\u0131na<\/strong> <\/strong>dikkat!"<\/strong> <\/p>\n \u0130ddiaya g\u00f6re, ABD ve \u0130ran merkezli geli\u015fmeler, k\u00fcremizi Berlin Duvar\u0131'n\u0131n y\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131ndan bu yana en ciddi siyasal-diplomatik bunal\u0131mla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya getirecek. Dahas\u0131, 1929 \u00c7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc boyutlar\u0131nda ekonomik ve mali krizle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da var! <\/p>\n "Siz<\/strong> ajandalarda<\/strong> belirtilmeyen<\/strong> olaylara<\/strong> g\u00f6z<\/strong> at\u0131n"<\/strong> yan\u0131t\u0131<\/strong> veriyorlar<\/strong> felaket<\/strong> tellallar\u0131<\/strong> ve son derece ciddi bir "D\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce kurulu\u015fu" olan "Avrupa 2020 Siyasal \u00d6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler Laboratuar\u0131"n\u0131n siyasal, diplomatik ve mali \u00e7evrelerde elden ele dola\u015fan raporuna g\u00f6z at\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyorlar. <\/p>\n Belirtilen adrese bin bir g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fckle ula\u015f\u0131p, g\u00f6z att\u0131k. Ger\u00e7ekten de insana so\u011fuk terler d\u00f6kt\u00fcren bir rapor, daha do\u011frusu senaryo. <\/p>\n \t\t\tUzmanlar d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kimsenin \u00f6nemsemedi\u011fi iki "olay"\u0131n zincirleme krizleri tetikleyece\u011fi anlat\u0131l\u0131yor! Peki o olaylar ne? \t\t\t<\/p>\n \t\t\t1- \u0130ran'\u0131n<\/strong> Tahran'da<\/strong> t\u00fcm<\/strong> \u00fcreticilere<\/strong> a\u00e7\u0131k,<\/strong> avro<\/strong> ile<\/strong> i\u015flem<\/strong> yapacak<\/strong> ilk<\/strong> petrol<\/strong> borsas\u0131n\u0131<\/strong> a\u00e7mas\u0131.<\/strong> \t\t\t<\/p>\n \t\t\t2- ABD<\/strong> Federal<\/strong> Rezerv'in<\/strong> (Merkez<\/strong> Bankas\u0131),<\/strong> M3<\/strong> verilerini<\/strong> (D\u00fcnyada<\/strong> dola\u015f\u0131mda<\/strong> olan<\/strong> dolar<\/strong> tutar\u0131)<\/strong> a\u00e7\u0131klamaya<\/strong> son<\/strong> vermesi.<\/strong> \t\t\t<\/p>\n \t\t\tAvro,<\/strong> atomdan<\/strong> tehlikeli!..<\/strong> \t\t\t<\/p>\n \t\t\t\u0130ran'\u0131n avrolu borsas\u0131, petrol ticaretinde dolar tekeline son verecek. Hat\u0131rlay\u0131n; Venez\u00fcella'n\u0131n deli-dolu Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Hugo Chavez petrol\u00fc dolar yerine k\u0131smen avro ile ihra\u00e7 etmeye kalkt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ABD'nin planlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 iddia edilen darbeyle devrilmenin e\u015fi\u011fine gelmi\u015fti. Vazge\u00e7mek zorunda kald\u0131. \u0130ran'\u0131n giri\u015fimi petrol \u00fcreticilerine avro ile sat\u0131\u015f yolu a\u00e7mas\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Avrupa'ya da kendi paras\u0131yla ithalat olana\u011f\u0131 sa\u011flayacak. Bu da dolar\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 rezerv paras\u0131 rol\u00fcne ABD'nin kabullenemeyece\u011fi bir darbe indirecek. Vaktinde<\/strong> \u00f6nlenemezse,<\/strong> \u0130ran'\u0131n<\/strong> tetikledi\u011fi<\/strong> s\u00fcre\u00e7le<\/strong> bu<\/strong> y\u0131l<\/strong>sonunda<\/strong> avro-dolar<\/strong> paritesinin<\/strong> 1.70'e<\/strong> \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131<\/strong> iddia<\/strong> ediliyor.<\/strong> \t\t\t<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n \u00a0 <\/p>\n M3 g\u00f6stergelerini a\u00e7\u0131klamaktan vazge\u00e7me karar\u0131na gelince; bunun da ABD'nin banknot matbaas\u0131na fazla mesai yapt\u0131rmay\u0131 gizlemeye y\u00f6nelik \u00f6nlem oldu\u011fu iddia ediliyor. Bu politikayla ne ama\u00e7lan\u0131yor? <\/p>\n Yan\u0131t:<\/strong> ABD'nin<\/strong> d\u0131\u015f<\/strong> borcunu<\/strong> kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ks\u0131z<\/strong> dolarlarla<\/strong> temizlemek,<\/strong> piyasaya<\/strong> dolar<\/strong> pompalay\u0131p<\/strong> ABD<\/strong> ekonomisine<\/strong> destek<\/strong> sa\u011flamak.<\/strong> <\/p>\n Ayr\u0131ca Asya \u00fclkeleriyle petrol \u00fcreticisi Arap \u00fclkelerinin can havliyle ellerindeki ABD hazine bonolar\u0131n\u0131 satmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015facaklar\u0131 da \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. De\u011ferini epey yitirmi\u015f dolarla da olsa. Bu karma\u015fada \u00c7in'in trilyon dolar\u0131 a\u015fan rezervlerinin \u00e7\u00f6kmesi ve k\u00fcreselle\u015fme s\u00fcrecinin a\u011f\u0131r darbe almas\u0131 risklerinden de s\u00f6z ediliyor. <\/p>\n Kulisler, ABD'nin tam da bu dolar operasyonunu ba\u015flat\u0131rken, \u0130ran'\u0131n avrolu petrol borsas\u0131 a\u00e7mas\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcm hesaplar\u0131 alt\u00fcst edece\u011fini belirtiyor ve ekliyorlar: "Ba\u015fkan<\/strong> Bush<\/strong> a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan<\/strong> mollalar\u0131n<\/strong> n\u00fckleer<\/strong> silaha<\/strong> sahip<\/strong> olma<\/strong> planlar\u0131ndan<\/strong> bile<\/strong> tehlikeli,<\/strong> mutlaka<\/strong> ve<\/strong> de<\/strong> tez<\/strong> elden<\/strong> durdurulmas\u0131<\/strong> gereken<\/strong> giri\u015fim!"<\/strong> <\/p>\n Ah, unutuyorduk; Ba\u015fbakan Erdo\u011fan'\u0131n da T\u00fcrkiye'nin n\u00fckleer santral projeleriyle ilgili a\u00e7\u0131klamay\u0131 -ertelemezse- bug\u00fcnlerde, yani Mart ay\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmadan yapmas\u0131 gerekmiyor muydu? <\/p>\n Felaket<\/strong> senaryolar\u0131<\/strong> ne<\/strong> kadar<\/strong> do\u011frulan\u0131r<\/strong> bilmiyoruz<\/strong>, ama d\u00fcnya<\/strong> galiba<\/strong> ilgin\u00e7<\/strong> bir<\/strong> d\u00f6neme<\/strong> giriyor…<\/strong> <\/p>\n K\u00f6t\u00fcmserlerin Say\u0131s\u0131 Art\u0131yor <\/p>\n TNS-P\u0130AR 1997'den beri d\u00fczenli olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi siyasi e\u011filimler ara\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n \u015eubat ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin verilerini g\u00f6nderdi. <\/p>\n Ara\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi en \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 sonu\u00e7, iktidar\u0131n ekonomik politikalar\u0131 nedeniyle destek kaybediyor olu\u015funu g\u00f6stermesi. <\/p>\n 18 ilde, 2000 ki\u015filik \u00f6rnek kitle \u00fczerinden ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen ara\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n en \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 sorusu bence "T\u00fcrk halk\u0131n\u0131n ve ailelerinin gelir durumu, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki on iki ay i\u00e7inde iyiye do\u011fru mu gidecek, k\u00f6t\u00fcye do\u011fru mu gidecek, yoksa ayn\u0131 m\u0131 kalacak?" \u015feklinde olan. <\/p>\n Bu soruya "K\u00f6t\u00fcye do\u011fru" diyenlerin oran\u0131nda \u015eubat 2006'da ciddi bir art\u0131\u015f var. Ara\u015ft\u0131rma, halk\u0131n y\u00fczde 42'sinin gelecekten umutlu olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. <\/p>\n Durumun<\/strong> iyiye<\/strong> gidece\u011fini<\/strong> s\u00f6yleyenlerin<\/strong> oran\u0131<\/strong> sadece<\/strong> y\u00fczde<\/strong> 25,<\/strong> "Durumda de\u011fi\u015fme olmaz" diyenler ise % 27, <\/p>\n Oysa Ba\u015fbakan Erdo\u011fan, Ankara'da g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc Wall Street Journal yazar\u0131 Robert Pollock'a \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131ll\u0131k iktidarda en \u00f6nemli icraat\u0131 ekonomi alan\u0131nda g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6ylemi\u015fti. <\/p>\n Erdo\u011fan Yolsuzluk, Yoksulluk ve Yasaklarla M\u00fccadele alan\u0131nda ciddi mesafe al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlatm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. <\/p>\n Enflasyon alan\u0131ndaki ba\u015far\u0131y\u0131 herkes kabul ediyor. B\u00fcy\u00fcme de g\u00f6r\u00fcnen bir ger\u00e7ek ama yarat\u0131lan<\/strong> zenginli\u011fin<\/strong> toplumda<\/strong> e\u015fit<\/strong> oranda<\/strong> da\u011f\u0131t\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131<\/strong> iddia<\/strong> etmek<\/strong> m\u00fcmk\u00fcn<\/strong> de\u011fil.<\/strong> <\/p>\n Ba\u015fbakan \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l \u00f6nce se\u00e7im meydanlar\u0131nda "\u00e7ay-simit" hesab\u0131 yapard\u0131. \u00dc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n sonunda s\u0131radan vatanda\u015f\u0131n beslenme bi\u00e7iminde k\u00f6kl\u00fc de\u011fi\u015fiklik oldu\u011funu kimse ileri s\u00fcremez herhalde. <\/p>\n Bu alg\u0131lamaya paralel olarak AK Parti'ye destekte de bir miktar azalma g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. TNS-P\u0130AR'\u0131n ara\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131na g\u00f6re, iktidar bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re gerileyerek y\u00fczde 36.8'e gelmi\u015f durumda. <\/p>\n H\u00fck\u00fcmetin ekonomi y\u00f6netimi ve yolsuzluklarla m\u00fccadeledeki performans\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ok iyi veya iyi bulanlar\u0131n oran\u0131ndaki gerileme de iktidara ciddi bir uyar\u0131 niteli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131yor. <\/p>\n Ba\u015fbakan Erdo\u011fan, kabul etse de etmese de, Maliye Bakan\u0131 Kemal Unak\u0131tan ve \u00e7ocuklar\u0131 hakk\u0131ndaki iddialar, iktidar\u0131n yolsuzluklarla m\u00fccadele iddialar\u0131na g\u00f6lge d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcyor. <\/p>\n Bu durumda iktidar\u0131n performans\u0131 ile ilgili \u00f6v\u00fcnebilece\u011fi tek alan olarak yasaklar kal\u0131yor. Ba\u015fbakan burada iktidar\u0131 d\u00f6neminde kimsenin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesinden dolay\u0131 hapse mahk\u00fbm olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlat\u0131yor Wall Street Journal yazar\u0131na. <\/p>\n "Toplumda<\/strong> karamsarl\u0131\u011f\u0131n<\/strong> bir<\/strong> ba\u015fka<\/strong> g\u00f6stergesi<\/strong> ise<\/strong> AB'ye<\/strong> destekteki<\/strong> h\u0131zl\u0131<\/strong> erime.<\/strong> \u015eubat ay\u0131nda bu soruya olumlu yan\u0131t verenler y\u00fczde 58'e inmi\u015f. Oysa ayn\u0131 oran ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 72'nin \u00fczerindeymi\u015f. <\/p>\n \u00d6zetlersek, insanlar hala ge\u00e7en iktidar d\u00f6nemini, istikrars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n sanc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131, ekonomik krizleri unutmu\u015f de\u011fil. <\/p>\n O y\u00fczden y\u00fczde 56's\u0131 bir erken se\u00e7ime kar\u015f\u0131. Erken se\u00e7ime evet diyenlerin oran\u0131 sadece y\u00fczde 26 g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. <\/p>\n Ancak, iktidar\u0131n<\/strong> \u00f6zellikle<\/strong> ekonomi<\/strong> alan\u0131ndaki<\/strong> performans\u0131ndan<\/strong> hayal<\/strong> k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/strong> duyanlar\u0131n<\/strong> say\u0131s\u0131<\/strong> g\u00f6r\u00fcnen<\/strong> o<\/strong> ki<\/strong> art\u0131yor.<\/strong> <\/p>\n Son durumun \u00f6zeti bu.[3]<\/a>" <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n [1]<\/a> Yi\u011fit Bulut \/ Referans \/ 20.03.2006 <\/p>\n [2]<\/a> Ya\u015far Erdin\u00e7 \/ Ak\u015fam \/ 20.03.2006 <\/p>\nB\u00fcy\u00fcme de\u011fil ill\u00fczyon<\/span><\/h1>\n
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